Almond Market Update – April 2025
The Almond Board of California released the March 2025 position report:
March shipments were 221.4 million lbs. vs. 237 million lbs. in 2024: DOWN 6.6% for the Month & Down 1.6% YTD
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -17.1% (-3.5% YTD)
Exports -2.87% ( – 0.9% YTD)
Western Europe -16% (-5% YTD)
India +68% (-9% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -19% (+11% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -23% (-28% YTD)
Japan +9% (+4% YTD)
South Korea -19% (+10% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -61% (+16% YTD)
Canada +9% (+4% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -3% (+41% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
March Shipments were in-line with expectations.
March Sales were 218 million lbs., up 20% from last March’s 182 million lbs., above expectations, and nearly a new record.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 574 million lbs. vs. last year’s 576 million lbs. – Down 0.3%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.38 billion lbs. vs. 2.41 billion lbs. a year ago, down 1%
The Industry Sold Position was 76% of total supply vs. 77% a year ago.
2024 Crop
Crop Receipts reached 2.7 billion lbs., which was expected.
2025 Crop
March brought numerous heavy storms, including hail storms that hit various parts of the valley. The strong areas of the crop appear to be Independence, Butte/Padre and Aldrich. The Nonpareil, Shasta, Carmel and several other pollinators are highly inconsistent. The lack of inputs and care in many orchards is continuing to show itself.
Tariffs
China announced retaliatory duties of an additional 10 to 15% on California almonds. Shipments to China represented less than 6% of California almond shipments last season, as much of the demand already shifted to Australia in recent years, because of the prior increases in tariffs. The European Union announced a 25% duty on California almonds, though we are hopeful that an agreement can be reached before the December 1 implementation date. If an agreement can be reached with the EU, the impact of what’s happened shouldn’t be too significant. The uncertainty surrounding all of this has brought more of a stop and go pattern to sales and is likely to continue to bring irregularity to shipments as buyers try to bring in volumes before potential tariff changes take place.
MARKET OUTLOOK
STD5 and other low-end items continue in tight supply and continue pushing up the market from the bottom. As the industry tracks toward another carryout in the range of 500 million lbs., buyers should be cautious in knowing certain varieties and sizes are becoming harder to find.
Inshell buying activity into India was excellent then slowed over the past week. We expect this to remain quiet for a period as buyers there digest the news of the large March shipments. Diwali is early this year so good demand for current crop will eventually need to return, but not in the short-term.
Our video market update with Nicole Wurzel is posted below. She gives a great overview of the current market conditions.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
Land IQ Initial Standing Acreage Estimate – Thursday April 24, 2025
NASS Subjective Crop Estimate – Monday May 12, 2025
April 2025 Position Report – Tuesday May 13, 2025