Almond Market Update – May 2025

The Almond Board of California has released the April 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 241.1 million lbs. in April, nearly flat versus 241.5 million lbs. last year — down 0.2% for the month, and down 1.4% year-to-date (YTD).

Sales & Shipments Review

• May shipments were in line with expectations.

• May sales totaled 193 million lbs. — historically strong, though down 12% from last year’s May record of 219 million lbs.

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 525 million lbs., down 5% from 553 million lbs. last year.

• Sold + Shipped reached 2.58 billion lbs., compared to 2.63 billion lbs. last year — down 2.2%.

• The industry sold position is 81.8% of total supply, versus 82.4% a year ago.

2024 Crop Update

Crop receipts have edged up slightly to 2.711 billion lbs.

2025 Crop Estimate

The USDA/NASS Subjective Estimate for the 2025 almond crop came in at 2.8 billion lbs., just 3% above last year’s final crop.

Since 2021, amid reduced inputs due to sustained low pricing, subjective estimates have, on average, overstated the crop by 8% (or roughly 210 million lbs.)

As such, the market is treating this figure with limited weight, awaiting the Objective Estimate due later this summer.

Kernels are beginning to harden off but are still filling. Last week’s heat wave brought temperatures reaching 100°F in the southern valley, emphasizing the importance of timely irrigation to avoid losses in nut size.

Market Outlook

Tariff concerns remain a key theme, though there’s growing optimism after a series of retaliatory tariff pauses — most recently with China — potentially paving the way for further easing.

Shipments to India surged 39%, well above expectations. The local market there is expected to soften as a result. However, with Australian shippers increasingly focused on China (thanks to favorable trade agreements), India is likely to rely more heavily on California almonds. With Diwali arriving early this year, Indian buyers still have significant coverage to complete.

Low carry-ins are becoming a global trend:

• Australia entered its new season with just 3% carry-in

• Spain is reportedly heavily sold

• California is also on track for another very tight carry-in

This global tightness in supply is helping to sustain firmness in almond pricing.

🎥 Video Market Update

Our video market update with Nicole Wurzel is posted below.
Nicole shares a concise and informative overview of current market dynamics.

Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.

Further Info:

April 2025 Position Report

Upcoming News:

May 2025 Position Report – Thursday June 12, 2025

NASS Objective Crop Estimate & June 2025 Position Report – Thursday July 10, 2025