Almond Market Update - July 2025

Almond Market Update – July 2025

July 10, 2025

The Almond Board of California has released the June 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 186.7 million lbs. in June, a drop from 206.2 million lbs. last year — down 9.4% for the month, and down 2.5% YTD

Regional Demand:

U.S. -17.2% (-8% YTD)

Exports -6.1% ( -0.5% YTD)

Western Europe +7% (-0.3% YTD)

India +29% (-1% YTD)

Middle East / Africa -49% (-1% YTD)

China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +17% (-3% YTD)

Japan -2% (+5% YTD)

South Korea +37% (+4% YTD)

Central / Eastern Europe -49% (-1% YTD)

Canada +1% (+0.2% YTD)

Latin America / Caribbean +6% (+32% YTD)

Sales & Shipments Review

June shipments were down modestly from last June.
June sales totaled 96.8 million lbs. — up 4.8% from last year’s 92.3 million lbs.
Committed (unshipped) stood at 312 million lbs., down 10% from 347 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold + Shipped reached 2.76 billion lbs., compared to 2.86 billion lbs. last year — down 3.4%.
The industry sold position is 87.2% of total supply, versus 88.1% a year ago.

2025 Crop

Almond orchards continue to show steady progress toward what appears to be an early or even “on-time” harvest depending on the area. Weather this season has been fairly mild compared to years past which has slight slowed down hull split progression.

In the South and Central regions of the valley, hull split is underway in early varieties, especially on orchard edges. The Westside is leading development, with the Central and East Side regions close behind.

Growers across the state are in full swing with orchard floor preparation—mowing, weed spraying, and land planing are ongoing to ready orchards for harvest.

Pest pressure remains a key concern. Gophers and squirrels have caused significant orchard damage. Early season reports indicated high presence of Leaf-Footed Plant Bug and stink bugs, and mites are now settling in. While some growers are applying early perimeter sprays, adoption remains limited. Many are planning to combine treatments for NOW, mites, and other pests during full hull split sprays.

NASS 2025 Objective Estimate

Today’s report forecasts the 2025 crop at 3.0 Billion lbs., up from the 2.8 Billion lb. subjective estimate and 2.7 Billion lb. 2024 crop.

This is using 2,160 lbs. per acre, well up from recent 3 year average of 1890 lbs./acre. The estimate is based off 1.39 Million bearing acres.

The estimate found 7% higher nut count per tree from 2024. The average kernel weight of all varieties was just slightly smaller from 2024.

Market Outlook

Pricing continued to soften during June amidst a bearish market. Heading into the report, activity and thus stability improved.

New crop sales remain well behind, sitting at 111 million lbs. vs. 271 million lbs. a year ago.

With the NASS estimate released today, buyers are likely to continue to try to look for deals. How much the sellers believe the number will impact their approach, however this is the figure we have for the time being.