Almond Market Update – August 2025

The Almond Board of California has released the July 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 197.1 million lbs. in July, up from 179.4 million lbs. July 2024 — up 9.9% for the month, and down 1.7% YTD

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• July sales of 2024 crop totaled 100.3 million lbs. — up 43% from last year’s 69.9 million lbs.

  • These strong year-end sales boosted shipments, with July up almost 10%.  This was the first month of shipment growth since December.

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 215 million lbs., down 9.3% from 237 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 2.86 billion lbs., compared to 2.93 billion lbs. last year — down 2.3%.

• The industry sold position is 90.5% of total supply, versus 91.6% a year ago.

2025 Crop

Almond harvest began early with limited shaking already taking place in late July.  Many huller/shellers now  have early production data ranging from a few days to a week’s worth.    Turn-outs so far are disappointing, showing a higher percentage of hulls and lower percentage of almonds vs. last season.  Early reports indicate a relatively flat crop in both the far south and far north.  On the west side of Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties, Nonpareil yields are down 20%, 30%, 40%, and even 50% in some cases.  Early Shasta fields are down considerably as well.  Independence yield data is limited but is looking better than Nonpareil and Shasta, though still below expectations.  It’s still very early and yields often improve as harvest progresses.  Some poor yields are expected due to reduced inputs from tough economic conditions; however, given that many of these fields were not shorted, the 2024 heat impact may be showing itself.

Market Outlook 

The industry is experiencing another tight carry-out of approximately 515 million lbs., which will be adjusted to actual with next month’s report.  This is almost identical to last year’s carry-in.  If sentiment were more bullish recently, the carry-out would feel tighter, but there’s been strong seller participation recently.

Tariff uncertainty remains a concern in Europe, India, and various regions, keeping some buyers sidelined, but overall buying activity has been very strong.

July sales were 176 million lbs. of new crop along with 100 million lbs. of 2024 crop, making for a massive sales month.

Inshell buying interest is likely to remain slow following today’s report of big shipments to India.  Kernel interest is likely to remain strong.

Pricing fell roughly 0.50/lb. following the NASS objective estimate.  Despite a 25/lb. bounce off the bottom, pricing remains below break even for many growers.  It’s a pivotal moment for the almond industry and the yield reports will be carefully watched in the coming weeks.

Video Market Update

Our video market update with Nicole Wurzel is posted below.
Nicole shares a concise and informative overview of current market dynamics.

Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

July 2025 Position Report

Upcoming News:

August 2025 Position Report – Tuesday September 10th, 2025