Almond Market Update - September 2025

Almond Market Update – September 2025

September 11, 2025

The Almond Board of California released the August 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 157.8 million lbs. in August, down from 168.3 million lbs. August of 2024 — down 6.2% for the month.

Regional Demand:

U.S. -21.9%

Exports +2.9%

Western Europe +10%

India -41%

Middle East / Africa +55%

China / Hong Kong / Vietnam -27%

Japan -18%

South Korea -5%

Central / Eastern Europe +49%

Canada -11%

Latin America / Caribbean +32%

Sales & Shipments Review

August sales totaled 184.1 million lbs. — up 16% from the 159.4 million lbs. a year ago.
Committed (unshipped) stood at 527 million lbs., down 13% from 608 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold + Shipped reached 685 million lbs., compared to 776 million lbs. a year ago— down 12%.
The industry sold position is 21.2% of total supply, versus 25.9% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.8 billion lb. crop, which we think is on the high side of industry expectations at this time.

2025 Crop

Almond receipts continue to disappoint with lower turnouts , showing larger hulls and a lower percentage of almond kernels than historical norms. The far south, Kern/Tulare, are showing the best yields vs. last year, and should be up above the 2024 crop. The worst yielding areas appear to be Fresno and Madera Counties, and generally the west side of the valley. Most other growing regions appear down from last year. Independence are showing the best yields, and at our huller/sheller we are also up on Aldrich at this early stage. Otherwise we are seeing yields down on Nonpareil, Shasta, Monterey, Butte/Padre, Price, and Wood Colony.

Inedibles are tracking similar to this time last year at 2.4%. So far fairly clean, but inconsistent, and last year inedibles rose as we got further along.

Market Outlook

The carry-in adjustment down to 484 million lbs. from 515 million lbs. reflects actual loss & exempt being 3.14% vs. forecasted 2%. A year ago the industry was surprised at the low loss & exempt, and this year the higher loss & exempt comes as a surprise. We believe it took extra months to work through high inedibles from the 2023 crop, and thus a lagging effect of seeing a higher loss & exempt. Additionally, the Almond Board did a voluntary survey to see what portion of the carry-in was edible, and an estimated 67% of the industry (by volume) participated, showing only 92.4% of the carry-in was edible. This would equate to about 447 million lbs. of edible carry-in as of July 31. The idea at the Almond Board is improved visibility of the marketable carry-in.

Tariff concerns have been partly subdued as the EU postponed their deadline to make changes.

Pricing has recovered $0.50/lb. and is already above where pricing was before the objective estimate was released. Almonds remain competitively priced amongst the tree nuts. The weakening USD continues to support export demand. The run-up in pricing happened without much participation from our largest export market: India

India appears largely uncovered for September, following a very low August shipment figure. Inshell demand is already improving coming out of today’s report.