Almond Market Update – October 2025

The Almond Board of California released the September 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 197.3 million lbs. in September, down from 213.6 million lbs. September of 2024 — down 7.6% for the month and down 7% for the season (Aug/Sept).

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• September sales totaled 219.5 million lbs. — down 19.7% from 273.4 million lbs. a year ago.  Hesitant buyers led to lower sales.

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 549 million lbs. — down 18% from 667 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 904 million lbs., compared to 1.05 billion lbs. a year ago— down 14%.

• The industry sold position is 28% of total supply, versus 33% a year ago.  This is assuming a 2.8 billion lb. crop, which we think is on the high side of industry expectations at this time.  We expect receipts to fall closer to 2.6 to 2.7 Billion lbs.

2025 Crop

The 2025 crop is shaping up smaller and more inconsistent than last year, with weather-driven challenges across growing regions.

Almond  harvest started very early, with even some July shaking, and is ending very late.  Various rain events throughout harvest caused significant delays with harvest for those impacted.  Hulls are drying slowly as some growers try to finish up.

Yields vs. last year remain highly varied by region with Kern looking the best and Fresno/Madera looking the worst vs. LY.  At our huller/sheller, the latest data shows Nonpareil down 11% and Monterey down 19%, and the overall crop down 17%.  The question is how much can the south and any other good pockets, make up for areas that are down vs. last year.

Inedibles are tracking at 2.4% but we expect this figure to rise.  Various recent receipts of Monterey are showing very high inedibles.  Sizing is generally similar to last year.  Some of the late harvested material is coming in with higher moisture.

Market Outlook 

In recent weeks, many buyers anticipated a weak position report and delayed purchases — while sellers became more aggressive, putting downward pressure on prices.  Pricing is off by about USD .15/lb.

So far in October, the Middle East and North Africa have been very active, covering needs ahead of Ramadan. Turkey’s improved tariff situation has sparked more buying there as well.
If markets that have been waiting — especially Europe, India, and the rest of Asia — step in soon, the market dynamics could shift.
China seems to need more covering ahead of Chinese New Year.

The longer India waits, the more likely we see intense buying at some point.  Inshell production at the hullers appears down so far.

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole Wurzel’s October Almond Market Update for a concise summary of these dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market insights.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

September 2025 Position Report

Upcoming News:

October 2025 Position Report – Thursday November 13th, 2025