Almond Market Update – November 2025

The Almond Board of California released the October 2025 Position Report

Shipments Overview

California shipped 249.2 million lbs. in October vs. 258.4 million lbs. October of 2024 – down 3.6% for the month and down 5.6% for the season.

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• October sales totaled 261.8 million lbs.— down 1.1% from 264.7 million lbs. a year ago.

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 562 million lbs. — down 17% from 674 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 1.17 billion lbs., compared to 1.31 billion lbs. a year ago— down 11%.

• The industry sold position is 36% of total supply, versus 42% a year ago.  This is assuming a 2.8 billion lb. crop like with the subjective estimate, which appears relatively high to industry expectations.  At RPAC we expect receipts to fall closer to 2.6 billion lbs.

2025 Crop

Almond harvest continued from late July all the way into November.  The rains were very troubling as they came throughout harvest.  Yield trends by variety & region remain consistent with last month.  The additional month of receiving gives us more confidence in the significantly lower yields in Madera and Fresno Counties.

Inedibles are tracking at 2.5%, trending slightly upward but well below last season.  Growers continued focus on mummy shaking and other pest control methods has led to a second consecutive year of reduced insect damage.

Market Outlook 

Pricing is up 10 to 15 cents from a month ago.  A decent amount of buying took place to cover November/December, as buyers continued a hand to mouth approach due to the higher prices (vs. last season).  Despite a notably slow start to the inshell market, demand overall has been good.  We believe this will be the 4th consecutive year of lower total supply (marketable crop + carry-in).  This trend is why pricing is finally getting closer to levels growers can work with.  With an expected slightly lower supply and slightly lower shipments, the market seems relatively balanced.  In 2-3 months we should have a clearer grasp on both the crop size and demand outlook.

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole Wurzel’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of these dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market insights.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

October 2025 Position Report

Upcoming News:

November 2025 Position Report – Wednesday December 10th, 2025