Almond Market Update – December 2025
The Almond Board of California released the November 2025 Position Report
Shipments Overview
California shipped 220.5 million lbs. in November vs. 271.4 million lbs. November of 2024 – down 18.7% for the month and down 9.5% for the season.
Regional Demand:
U.S. -13% (-19.3% YTD)
Exports -20.2% (-6% YTD)
Western Europe -41.6% (-1% YTD)
India +29.4% (-19.1% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -8% (-2.7% YTD)
China / Hong Kong / Vietnam -12.6% (-11.5% YTD)
Japan -17.3% (-1.8% YTD)
South Korea +29.8% (-3.4% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -42.7% (-14.1% YTD)
Canada +1% (-8.1% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -50.6% (-23.5% YTD)
Sales & Shipments Review
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November sales totaled 204.3 million lbs.— down 2.5% from 209.5 million lbs. a year ago.
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Committed (unshipped) stood at 545 million lbs. — down 11% from 612 million lbs. a year ago.
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Sold + Shipped reached 1.37 billion lbs., compared to 152 billion lbs. a year ago— down 10%.
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The industry sold position is 43.8% of total supply, versus 48.2% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.7 billion lb. crop like with the subjective estimate, which appears relatively high to industry expectations. At RPAC we expect receipts to fall closer to 2.6 billion lbs.
2025 Crop
Almond harvest continued from late July all the way into November. The rains were very troubling as they came throughout harvest. Yield trends by variety & region remain consistent with last month. The additional month of receiving gives us more confidence in the significantly lower yields in Madera and Fresno Counties.
Inedibles are tracking at 2.5%, trending slightly upward but well below last season. Growers continued focus on mummy shaking and other pest control methods has led to a second consecutive year of reduced insect damage.
Market Outlook
Pricing is up 10 to 15 cents from a month ago. A decent amount of buying took place to cover November/December, as buyers continued a hand to mouth approach due to the higher prices (vs. last season). Despite a notably slow start to the inshell market, demand overall has been good. We believe this will be the 4th consecutive year of lower total supply (marketable crop + carry-in). This trend is why pricing is finally getting closer to levels growers can work with. With an expected slightly lower supply and slightly lower shipments, the market seems relatively balanced. In 2-3 months we should have a clearer grasp on both the crop size and demand outlook.
Video Market Update
Watch Nicole Wurzel’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of these dynamics and insights:
Please reach out with any questions or market insights.
Best Regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
December 2025 Position Report – Wednesday January 13h, 2026