Almond Market Update – March 2026

The Almond Board of California released the February 2026 Position Report showing strong export demand and near-record February shipments while domestic shipments remain weak.

Shipments Overview

California shipped 241.1 million lbs. vs. 214.9 million lbs. February 2025 – up 12.2%  for the month and down 4.4%  YTD

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• February sales totaled 246.2 million lbs. — up 11.5%  from 220.8 million lbs. a year ago.   

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 593.4 million lbs.  — up 2.8% from 577.4 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 2.11 billion lbs. compared to 2.17 billion lbs. a year ago — down 2.5%. 

• The industry sold position is 67.5% of total supply, versus 68.5% a year ago.  This is assuming a 2.7 billion lb. crop.

2025 Crop

Crop receipts reached 2.69 billion lbs. on USDA receipts (2.68 on Almond Board receipts).

Receipts are mostly complete and remain on track for a crop very similar to the 2024 crop.

Market Outlook 

The domestic market continues to face challenges amid heavy snack competition and shifting consumer behavior.  However, export demand more than offset the decline in domestic shipments as exports were up over 23%.  India shipments were strong and in-line with expectations as inventories have remained tight at destination.  Demand from China can often reappear quickly when prices become attractive, and this report showed another example of that dynamic.

Bloom started very early in much of the state.  Early conditions were generally good for pollination depending on the region.  The peak period brought very cold and wet weather.  Conditions improved again late in bloom.  This combination likely leads to highly varied crops by variety and region.

February shipments were near record levels and in line with expectations.  What was not expected was a record month of new sales in February.  Sellers were hesitant during the poor weather period, while buyers were hesitant during the good weather, especially as the fighting broke out in Iran.  Somehow, we ended up with very good sales, perhaps much of it came early in the month as strong January activity carried into part of February.

Middle East shipments are impacted by the situation in Iran, but not halted either.  There are still routes to many destinations.  The strong sales in January and February could lead to a strong March.  Carry-out expectations were at their worst in mid-December when shipments were reported down 9.5% YTD.  That deficit has narrowed to only 4.4% YTD and may be entirely caught up if the sales and shipment pace continue.  If carry-out forecasts continue to decline, the market should improve.  The developing 2026 crop outlook and situation in the Middle East will continue to influence the market.  Sometimes the industry gets overly excited about the crop potential early on.  Much of what is on the tree will drop before harvest.  Alyssa’s video gives a good look at the varying nut sizes.

Overall, strong export demand and improving shipment pace are helping the industry work through supply, while crop uncertainty and geopolitical developments remain key factors to watch.

Alyssa shares current stage of almond nut development (further down is our video market update):

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

February 2026 Position Report

Upcoming News:

March 2026 Position Report – Thursday April 9th, 2026