Almond Market Update – April 2026

The Almond Board of California released the March 2026 Position Report:

Shipments Overview

California shipped 258 million lbs. vs. 221.4 million lbs. March 2025 – up 16.5% for the month and down 1.9% YTD

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• March sales totaled 240.7 million lbs. — up 10.6%  from 217.6 million lbs. a year ago.   

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 576.1 million lbs.  — up 0.4% from 573.6 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 2.35 billion lbs. compared to 2.38 billion lbs. a year ago — down 1.3%. 

• The industry sold position is 75.1% of total supply, versus 75.4% a year ago.

2025 Crop

Crop receipts remained slightly below 2.7 billion lbs.

2026 Crop

The 2026 crop appears highly varied by region.  Yields in the north appear down.  The west side appears up from last year.  The east side of the center-state appears down.  Madera County is not impressive but should rebound from a very low yielding ’25 crop.  The south appears mixed.

The excessive heat in March creates risk around kernel size and overall yield. We are also seeing increased disease and insect activity following the unusual weather patterns of a wet February and hot March.  Disease already seen includes jacket rot, anthracnose and red leaf blotch.

With the low snowpack, water allocations in Federal districts are only sitting at 20% currently.  Costs for water will be rising for some growers this year.

An early harvest should be expected following the hot March.  Many growers are moving up fertility applications given the advanced stage of the crop.

Market Outlook 

Europe was a big part of the strong shipments as they replenished stocks.  The Middle East was mostly flat despite the war, as much of the trading shifted from UAE to Turkey.  The rains in Australia are likely driving some demand from China back to California.

Inshell supply is believed to be very tight, as noted by the .25/lb.  premium for Nonpareil inshell over kernels.  The season’s weak start to the inshell market led to  less inshell being produced, creating a likely very tight finish to the season.

Compared to just 5 months ago, the crop size was unknown, shipments were down nearly 10% YTD, commitments were down double digits.  Today total supply stands down 1.1% with shipments down 1.9% YTD and commitments slightly up from a year ago.  Four months in a row of improved sales vs. last season has left the industry in a solid position.   The industry now has more confidence we’re headed toward a carry-out in the range of 500 million lbs.

Despite the very strong report, the industry needs to continue selling.   The crop outlook should continue to play more into the market as we get into May.

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

March 2026 Position Report

Upcoming News:

April 2026 Position Report & NASS Subjective Crop Estimate – Thursday May 12th, 2026