Almond Market Update – May 2026

The Almond Board of California released the April 2026 Position Report:

Shipments Overview

California shipped 219.9 million lbs. vs. 241.1 million lbs. April 2025 – down 8.8% for the month and down 2.7% YTD

Regional Demand:

Sales & Shipments Review

• April sales totaled 160.7 million lbs. — down 16.5%  from 192.5 million lbs. a year ago.   

• Committed (unshipped) stood at 516.9 million lbs.  — down 1.6% from 525.1 million lbs. a year ago.

• Sold + Shipped reached 2.51 billion lbs. compared to 2.58 billion lbs. a year ago — down 2.5%. 

• The industry sold position is 80.3% of total supply, versus 81.8% a year ago.

2026 Crop

With the recently released Land IQ report,  total almond acreage (including young non-producing trees, the non-bearing acreage), declined for the fourth year in a row.  For the first time since 1995, bearing acreage (producing trees) declined as well.  The ongoing right sizing follows the tough economics of growing almonds that started about 5 years ago.

The estimated 1.385 million bearing acres includes a decent amount of stressed, abandoned, and potentially abandoned orchards.

NASS’s 2026 Subjective estimate released today was 2.7 Billion lbs., putting the crop flat to both the 2024 and 2025 crops.  This estimate assumes 1,940 lbs./acre and is inline with industry expectations.

Market Outlook 

Pricing rose in recent weeks as supplies tightened and 2026 crop expectations moderated.

The rains in Australia impacted their 2026 crop quality, likely reducing inshell supply available for India.  The significant decline in April shipments to India, along with reports of stocks selling through quickly in the local market, bode well for the inshell market.  With the complete lack of inshell premium for most of the season, it’s believed that most of the inshell supply in California is very well sold.

The industry is still tracking towards a carry-out similar to last year, in the range of 500 million lbs..

Buyers clearly remember the price crash that followed the July 2025 Objective estimate.  This concern of a potential estimate surprise has delayed some purchases, resulting in very low stock at some destinations including the Middle East.  This year, there is no fear of an unknown objective in the minds of buyers and sellers as the objective estimate has been discontinued.  So with today’s subjective estimate out with no surprises, activity should ramp up.

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

April 2026 Position Report

LandIQ Initial Acreage 2026

Upcoming News:

May 2026 Position Report – Thursday June 11th, 2026