Almond Market Update – June 2026
The Almond Board of California released the May 2026 Position Report:
Shipments Overview
California shipped 217.4 million lbs. vs. 211.8 million lbs. May 2025 – up 2.6% for the month and down 2.2% YTD
Regional Demand:
U.S. -5.5% (-13.6% YTD)
Exports +5.2% (+1.7% YTD)
Western Europe +9% (+3% YTD)
India -26% (-9% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +10% (+6% YTD)
China / Hong Kong / Vietnam -21% (+0.5% YTD)
Japan -11% (-15% YTD)
South Korea -31% (-10% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +100% (+25% YTD)
Canada +56% (-5% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +6% (-7% YTD)
Sales & Shipments Review
May sales totaled 138.7 million lbs. — up 55.9% from 89 million lbs. a year ago.
Committed (unshipped) stood at 438.3 million lbs. — up 8.9% from 402.3 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold + Shipped reached 2.65 billion lbs. compared to 2.66 billion lbs. a year ago — down 0.5%.
The industry sold position is 84.7% of total supply, versus 84.1% a year ago.
2026 Crop
The crop is advancing quickly with the early spring heat we had. It could be 2 weeks early in some areas.
Disease pressures remain high with the wet spring. Growers have generally been putting out more fertilizer over the past year, with the improved market, but the current rise in fertilizer pricing is not helping.
There are mixed reports on kernel size expectations.
Market Outlook
Pricing has been steady and firm in recent weeks. The inshell market is greatly improved from the beginning of the season, trading above kernels for both 2025 & 2026 crops.
This is the first time this season, 2025 crop sold percentage is ahead of last season.
Supply is on track for another tight carryout. The numbers point to slightly above last season, but it feels tighter, likely because improved sentiment is driving more activity.
We believe sentiment is greatly improved because two worries have lifted: a major potential shift in duties, especially in the EU, and an unknown Objective Estimate around the corner.
It’s worth highlighting that Turkey has become the new trading hub in place of the UAE amid the troubles in the Middle East. Its up 42% YTD and was up more than double for the month. High hazelnut prices and improved tariffs into Turkey are also helping. Demand in the Middle East region remains resilient.
The domestic market remains a challenge and one we are all watching closely.
The pistachio outlook is very bullish due to high confidence their supply will be down considerably. The high pricing of some competing nuts should help almond demand.
New crop (2026) sales are 92 million lbs., compared to 66 million lbs. at this time last year. These are still historically low figures though new crop activity is likely to continue picking up following today’s report.
The sales and shipment figures will be key to the market in the coming months, as minimal supply info will be known for months.
Video Market Update
Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:
Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.
Best Regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
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June 2026 Position Report – Thursday July 9th, 2026