Almond Market Update – August 2026
Almond pricing has reached the highest levels seen in about a decade.
The Almond Board of California released the July 2026 Position Report:
Shipments Overview
California shipped 203.6 million lbs. vs. 197.1 million lbs. July 2025 – up 3.3% for the month and down 0.6% YTD
Regional Demand:
U.S. +6.2% (-11.3% YTD)
Exports +2.3% (3.0% YTD)
Western Europe -10.0% (3.0% YTD)
India -25.1% (-10.5% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +36.6% (9.3% YTD)
China / Hong Kong / Vietnam +20.8% (-0.4% YTD)
Japan +28.2% (-6.8% YTD)
South Korea +5.5% (-8.4% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +44.1% (31.1% YTD)
Canada +11.5% (0.9% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -7.8% (-4.1% YTD)
Sales & Shipments Review
July sales totaled 81.3 million lbs. — down 19% from 100.3 million lbs. a year ago.
Committed (unshipped) stood at 246.2 million lbs. — up 14.3% from 215.5 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold + Shipped reached 2.88 billion lbs. compared to 2.86 billion lbs. a year ago — up 0.5% for the season.
The industry sold position is 91.9% of total supply, versus 90.5% a year ago.
2026 Crop
Harvest is underway and about 10 days early in many areas this year. Initial kernel sizes are considerably smaller than last season, which can be attributed to the warm weather in the weeks following bloom.
Insect damage for RPAC is only running about 1.5% so far. In limited situations where less mummy shaking took place or other pressure is present, we have seen spikes, but generally damage is low. Growers are vigilant about the upcoming third flight of navel orangeworm.
Market Outlook
Looking back on the season, the US shipments were down 11%. With shipments leveling off starting in March, and July proving the best month of the season YOY, the sentiment around the domestic market is improved.
Western Europe was up 3% for the season, and though down 10% for the month, this market continues to steadily buy.
The Middle East / Africa proved its resilience once again, finishing the season up 9% as Mersin Turkey has become a major trading hub for the region.
India’s 11% decline for the season is setting inshell up in a strong position to start this 2026 crop year. Demand for prompt has remained consistently strong.
New crop (2026) sales are 302.5 million lbs., compared to 284.8 million lbs. at this time last year. These are still historically low figures.
Pricing is at the highest level in roughly a decade, but grower costs have risen sharply over that same period. With another expected state-wide yield of below 2,000 lbs./acre, even current pricing is below break-even for a portion of the state’s growers. The profitability gap varies by operation, driven by yield, water cost, debt load and other factors.
As crop concerns remain around yields and kernel sizing, and uncommitted inventory down 17% from a year ago, the current outlook is for a very firm market.
Video Market Update
Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:
Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.
Best Regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
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August 2026 Position Report – Thursday September 10th, 2026