Almond Market Update – September 2026

The Almond Board of California released the August 2026 Position Report:

Shipments Overview

California shipped 190.1 million lbs. vs. 157.8 million lbs. August 2025 – up 20.5%

Regional Demand

Sales & Shipments Review

August sales totaled 138.8 million lbs. — down 24.6% from 184.1 million lbs. a year ago.

Committed (unshipped) stood at 497.4 million lbs. — down 5.6% from 526.7 million lbs. a year ago.

Sold + Shipped reached 687.5 million lbs. compared to 684.5 million lbs. a year ago — up 0.4%

The industry sold position is 22.1% of total supply, versus 21.9% a year ago.

2026 Crop

Harvest is early and reflected in the August crop receipts of over 400 million lbs., up 55% from the prior August.

Kernel sizes remain smaller.  The price gaps between sizes have widened, which is typical in years like this with smaller kernels.  NP 27/30 is  a common size in the center and north, and even smaller sizes are very prevalent in the south valley.

Inedibles so far average 2.1%, down from 2.4% a year ago.  These figures may trend upward  as the third flight of navel orangeworm seems to have hit some of the later harvested varieties and fields.   Harvest continues with pollinator varieties as the early  varieties of Nonpareil, Shasta and Independence are pretty well wrapped up.

The North is showing the lowest yields vs. last year, generally down 15-20%. The east side of the center state is reporting slightly down, while the west side is clearly up.  Yields from Kern County are generally reported to be down from last year though we see some  variability in reports from the south.

Market Outlook 

While yields are varied, they  generally point toward a crop below the 2.7 Billion lb. subjective estimate.   This lower crop expectation is contributing to the market firmness and continued increase in pricing seen in recent weeks.  Mid to large sized kernels are up about $0.20/lb. over the past month.

Every season at this time, the actual loss & exempt is calculated and supply figures are updated from actual.  For the the 2025 crop the L&E was 2.87% vs. 2% forecasted, resulting in carry-in being adjusted down 23.5 million lbs. to just 470 million lbs..   This is the fourth consecutive season of lower carry-in from the prior season.

August showed a strong start to shipments vs. last season and we think September should prove strong as well.

The industry will continue to keep a close eye on the shipments and the state-wide yield reports.

Video Market Update

Watch Nicole’s Almond Market Update for a concise summary of current dynamics and insights:

Please reach out with any questions or market feedback.

Best Regards,

Paul Ewing   Dennis Soares

Further Info:

August 2026 Position Report

Upcoming News:

September 2026 Position Report – Tuesday October 13th, 2026