NASS 2019 Objective Estimate
Shocker: California Almond Objective Estimate: 2.20 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 1,880 lbs. (well below the 2018 yield of 2090 and 2017 yield of 2270)
Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2016 or earlier): 1,170,000 (+80,000 acres)
VS. Subjective estimate of 2.5 Billion lbs: -12%
VS. 2018 Crop: -3.5%
Nut set per Tree: 4,667: (-17.8%)
Trees per Acre: 122 (up from 119) +2.5%
Kernel Weight: 1.54 grams (same as last year)
NASS found kernels to be thinner and longer than last year. The longest nuts since 2010.
Double Counts show historically high numbers but still down significantly from last season (6.0 vs. 7.9%).
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops:
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2500 | 2200 | |||||
Industry Expectations were around 250 to 350 million lbs. above today’s figure. This 300 million lb. gap from the subjective is the largest in history, with the 200 million lb. difference in 2011 being the closest. The very low nuts per tree is what really drove down the figure. This surprising news will take some days for the industry to digest.
Posted here is Objective 2019 Presentation
Posted here is the Objective 2019 Report
The June position report is due Friday July 12.
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.