NASS 2020 Objective Estimate
California Almond Objective Estimate: 3.0 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 2,380 lbs. (well above last year’s 2160/acre, and would be the highest yield per acre outside of 2011)
Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2016 or earlier): 1,260,000 (+80,000 acres)
Same Figure as Subjective estimate of 3.0 Billion lbs
Crop VS. 2019 Actual Crop: +18%
Nut set per Tree: 5,645: (+21%)
Trees per Acre: 122 (same as last year)
Kernel Weight: 1.51 grams (down 2%)
NASS found kernels to be thicker, yet shorter and more narrow than last year. The slightly lower weight is not surprising given the higher count of nuts per tree.
Double Counts are finally back to a more normal 3.0% after three seasons that ran about double that or more.
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops:
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3000 | 3000 | |||||
Industry Expectations were similar to or below today’s number. Now attention turns to the June position report due out this Friday July 10.
Posted here is the Objective 2020 Presentation
Posted here is the Objective 2020 Report
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.