NASS 2021 Almond Objective Estimate
California Almond Objective Estimate: 2.80 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 2,110 lbs. (down 15% from the 2020 crop yield)
Bearing Acres: 1,330,000 (+80,000 acres)
Down 400 million lbs. or 12.5% from the Subjective estimate of 3.2 billion lbs
Crop Estimate VS. 2020 Actual Crop: -10%
Nut set per Tree: 4,619 (-18%)
Nut Set by Region: North down 46%, Center State down 17%, South down 9%
Trees per Acre: 122 (same as last year)
Kernel Weight: 1.46 grams (down 3.3%)
NASS found kernels to be slightly wider (1%), slightly longer (2.5%), yet thinner ( 4.5%) vs. 2020
Double Counts are up 57% from last year but still lower than the 2017-2019 period which were historically high double levels. Monterey averaged over 9% which, given the expected variance from field to field, indicates some lots could be a challenge making SSR and Supreme grades.
Nonpareil is forecast to be down 19.7% on nut counts and 15% in overall production (200 million lbs.).
Butte/Padre nut counts combined are down 27.5%.
Monterey down 8.4%
Independence up 11.2%. This variety has looked good all along and benefits from the young average orchard age.
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops:
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3101 ** | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% |
| 2021 | 3200 | 2800 | |||||
Industry Expectations were wide ranging but generally this is on the low end of expectations.
Sizing: The almond weights are lower than the historically small almonds seen last season, and this could be worsened by the drought conditions.
A 2.8 billion lb. crop would mean 2.744 marketable, which combined with a 600 million lb. carry-in would mean total supply of 3.344 billion lbs. Compared to the 2020 crop year’s approx. 3.49 billion lbs. this would mean a decrease in total supply of 146 million lbs. (4.4%). Even with flat shipments next season, this would mean a significant reduction in carry-out. This all looks very bullish, but we will point out this is possibly the largest discrepancy in NASS estimates (between subjective and objective) in history, with a 400 million lb. difference, and may cause further lack of clarity in the market. Pricing is starting out significantly higher than last season’s opening levels, but we would estimate that if 2.8B is correct, the levels are not yet high enough to balance supply and demand.
Posted here is the Objective 2021 Presentation (Page 8 gives insight into the drought’s impact on soil moisture by region)
Posted here is the Objective 2021 Report
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.