NASS 2022 Almond Objective Estimate
California Almond Objective Estimate: 2.60 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 1,900 lbs. (down 14% from the 2021 crop yield of 2210/acre)
Bearing Acres: 1,370,000 (+50,000 acres)
Down 200 million lbs. or 7% from the Subjective estimate of 2.8 billion lbs
Crop Estimate VS. 2021 Actual Crop: -11%
Nut set per Tree: 4,082 (-12%)
Trees per Acre: 122.5 (barely up from 122 last year)
Kernel Weight: 1.47 grams (barely up from 1.46 last year)
NASS found kernels to be just slightly thinner (0.3%), slightly shorter (0.9%), yet thicker ( 7.2%) vs. 2021
Double Counts are down slightly from last year at 4.5% average, and remain much lower than the 2017-2019 period which were historically high double levels. Monterey averaged over 10%, up 12% from last year.
Nonpareil is forecast to be down 12% on nut counts and 11.6% in overall production (130 million lbs.).
Butte Type nut counts are down 13% off an already low number last season.
Monterey down 9.6%
Independence up 5.3%.
Historical Estimates vs. Actual crops:
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3101 | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% |
| 2021 * | 2915 | 3200 | -285 | -8.9% | 2800 | 115 | 4.1% |
| 2022 | 2800 | 2600 | |||||
| *2021 Crop Final is not completely finalized yet | |||||||
Kernel Sizing: The almond weights point toward another season of small sizes. Most buyers are used to small sizes after this 2021 season.
Industry Expectations were more in the range of 2.8 billion lbs., so this comes as a surprise. If accurate, this would mean the lowest yield per acre since 2009. It may be surprising for many to see such a low yield, but NASS did point out the frost and drought, which we agree are significant events. NASS also mentioned in their presentation that this is the third year in a row that they have increased their sampling within the orchards, and the past two years have been within about 3 to 4% of the final crop size.
A 2.6 billion lb. crop would mean 2.55 marketable, which combined with an estimated 775 million lb. carry-in, would mean total supply of 3.325 billion lbs. Compared to the 2021 crop year’s approx. 3.46 billion lbs. this would mean a decrease in total supply of 135 million lbs. (4%). If shipments can stay on track like we’ve seen in recent months, we could put a significant dent in the carry out going into the 2023 crop year.
Growers seem glad to receive some good news considering everything that’s been happening lately.
Posted here is the Objective 2022 – NASS Report
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.