NASS 2023 Almond Objective Estimate
California Almond Objective Estimate: 2.6 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 1,880 lbs. (down 6% from the 2022 crop yield of 1900/acre)
Bearing Acres: 1,380,000 (+30,000 acres)
Up 100 million lbs. or 4% from the Subjective estimate of 2.5 billion lbs
Crop Estimate VS. 2022 Actual Crop: +1%
Nut set per Tree: 3,953 (-3.6%)
Trees per Acre: 124.7 (up from 122.5 last year)
Kernel Weight: 1.67 grams (up from 1.47 last year)
NASS found kernels to be wider (3.6%), longer (8%), and yet slightly thinner (1.1%) vs. 2022
Double Counts are up considerably from last year at 7.8% average (vs. 4.5%), and remain much lower than the 2017-2019 period which were historically high double levels. Monterey averaged 17.9%, up from 10.3% last year.
Nonpareil is forecast to be up 9% on size, slightly up on nut counts and up 10% in overall production (100 million lbs.).
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops (in millions of lbs.):
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3101 | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% |
| 2021 | 2922 | 3200 | -278 | -8.7% | 2800 | 122 | 4.6% |
| 2022* | 2570 | 2800 | -230 | -8.2% | 2600 | 30 | -1.1% |
| 2023 | 2600 | 2500 | |||||
*2022 Crop Final is not finalized yet
Kernel Sizing: The almond weights point toward the largest sizes since 2010.
Industry Expectations were more in the range of 2.3 – 2.5 billion lbs., so this comes as a surprise on the high end. Even at the 1880 lbs. per acre estimated yield, it is the lowest forecast since 2009, but that actual 2009 crop came in higher, so if accurate it would be the lowest actual yield since 2006. The NASS estimates total production essentially flat due to heavier kernel sizes and 30,000 more bearing acres. While the industry may debate both the kernel size being significant enough to make up for the low sets, and the growth in acreage, this is the only official figure we will have for quite some time.
A 2.6 billion lb. crop would mean 2.55 marketable, which combined with an estimated 785 million lb. carry-in, would mean total supply of 3.335 billion lbs., down 20 million lbs. from the 2022 crop year.
With the higher interest rate environment, we think buyers globally have reduced their warehouse inventory. This likely has lead to where shipments are slightly down, but are likely not totally reflective of consumption. The economic / inflation worries also played into 2022 crop year shipments.
Sellers should be more willing participants for current and new crops, helping stimulate the needed growth in shipments in the months ahead.
Posted here is the NASS Objective Report 2023
Nass Objective Presentation 2023
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.