NASS Subjective Estimate 2018

NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California’s 2018 almond crop at 2.30 billion lbs.

An estimated 2,150 lbs. per acre on 1,070,000 bearing acres.  The estimated yield is down 5.3% but estimated total production is up 1.3% due to increased bearing acreage from 1,000,000 in 2017.

The estimate is based on a survey of growers from April 18 to May 4.

Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts, in millions of lbs.

Crop Year	Final Crop	Subjective	Final vs. Subjective		Objective	Final vs. Objective
2003	1033	920	113	12.3%	1000	154	15.4%
2004	998	1100	-102	-9.3%	1080	-82	-7.6%
2005	912	850	62	7.3%	880	32	-3.6%
2006	1117	1020	97	9.5%	1050	67	-6.4%
2007	1383	1310	73	5.6%	1330	53	-4.0%
2008	1615	1460	155	10.6%	1500	115	-7.7%
2009	1406	1450	-44	-3.0%	1350	56	-4.1%
2010	1628	1530	98	6.4%	1650	-22	1.3%
2011	2020	1750	270	15.4%	1950	70	-3.6%
2012	1884	2000	-116	-5.8%	2100	-216	10.3%
2013	2010	2000	10	0.5%	1850	160	-8.6%
2014	1863	1950	-87	-4.5%	2100	-237	11.3%
2015	1868	1850	18	1.0%	1800	68	-3.8%
2016	2131	2000	131	6.6%	2050	81	-4.0%
2017	2260	2200	60	2.7%	2250	10	-0.4%
2018		2300

2.30 billion is closer to the low end of industry expectations and bullish news for the market.  Often the objective estimate (due out July 5) can vary a fair amount from the subjective.   The 15 year average for final receipts is 3.1% above the subjective and 0.8% above the objective, which are both impressively accurate.

Tomorrow the April position report will be released and we will send another update.’

Posted here is today’s NASS’ Subjective Report & recent Almond Acreage Report

Best regards,

Paul Ewing     Dennis Soares