NASS Subjective Estimate 2018
NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California’s 2018 almond crop at 2.30 billion lbs.
An estimated 2,150 lbs. per acre on 1,070,000 bearing acres. The estimated yield is down 5.3% but estimated total production is up 1.3% due to increased bearing acreage from 1,000,000 in 2017.
The estimate is based on a survey of growers from April 18 to May 4.
Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts, in millions of lbs.
Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
2003 | 1033 | 920 | 113 | 12.3% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | -3.6% |
2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | -6.4% |
2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | -4.0% |
2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | -7.7% |
2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | -4.1% |
2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | 1.3% |
2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | -3.6% |
2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | 10.3% |
2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | -8.6% |
2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | 11.3% |
2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | -3.8% |
2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | -4.0% |
2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | -0.4% |
2018 | 2300 |
2.30 billion is closer to the low end of industry expectations and bullish news for the market. Often the objective estimate (due out July 5) can vary a fair amount from the subjective. The 15 year average for final receipts is 3.1% above the subjective and 0.8% above the objective, which are both impressively accurate.
Tomorrow the April position report will be released and we will send another update.’
Posted here is today’s NASS’ Subjective Report & recent Almond Acreage Report
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares