NASS Subjective Almond Estimate 2019
NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California’s 2019 almond crop at 2.50 billion lbs.
An estimated 2,140 lbs. per acre on 1,170,000 bearing acres. The estimated yield is up 2.4% but estimated total production is up 9.6% due to increased bearing acreage.
The estimate is based on a survey of growers from April 19 o May 4.
Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts.
Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Subjective Vs. Final | Objective | Objective Vs. Final | ||
2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | -3.6% |
2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | -6.4% |
2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | -4.0% |
2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | -7.7% |
2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | -4.1% |
2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | 1.3% |
2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | -3.6% |
2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | 10.3% |
2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | -8.6% |
2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | 11.3% |
2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | -3.8% |
2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | -4.0% |
2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | -0.4% |
2018 | 2270 | 2300 | -30 | -1.3% | 2450 | -180 | 7.3% |
In millions of lbs. |
2.50 billion is closer to the low end of industry expectations and neutral news, perhaps bullish on the heels of yesterday’s position report. Posted here is today’s NASS Subjective Report & recent Acreage Report
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares