NASS Subjective Almond Estimate 2019

NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California’s 2019 almond crop at 2.50 billion lbs.

An estimated 2,140 lbs. per acre on 1,170,000 bearing acres.  The estimated yield is up 2.4% but estimated total production is up 9.6% due to increased bearing acreage.

The estimate is based on a survey of growers from April 19 o May 4.

Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts.

Crop Year	Final Crop	Subjective	Subjective Vs. Final		Objective	Objective Vs. Final
2003	1154	920	234	25.4%	1000	154	15.4%
2004	998	1100	-102	-9.3%	1080	-82	-7.6%
2005	912	850	62	7.3%	880	32	-3.6%
2006	1117	1020	97	9.5%	1050	67	-6.4%
2007	1383	1310	73	5.6%	1330	53	-4.0%
2008	1615	1460	155	10.6%	1500	115	-7.7%
2009	1406	1450	-44	-3.0%	1350	56	-4.1%
2010	1628	1530	98	6.4%	1650	-22	1.3%
2011	2020	1750	270	15.4%	1950	70	-3.6%
2012	1884	2000	-116	-5.8%	2100	-216	10.3%
2013	2010	2000	10	0.5%	1850	160	-8.6%
2014	1863	1950	-87	-4.5%	2100	-237	11.3%
2015	1868	1850	18	1.0%	1800	68	-3.8%
2016	2131	2000	131	6.6%	2050	81	-4.0%
2017	2260	2200	60	2.7%	2250	10	-0.4%
2018	2270	2300	-30	-1.3%	2450	-180	7.3%
	In millions of lbs.

2.50 billion is closer to the low end of industry expectations and neutral news, perhaps bullish on the heels of yesterday’s position report.  Posted here is today’s NASS Subjective Report & recent Acreage Report

Best regards,

Paul Ewing     Dennis Soares