NASS 2021 Subjective Estimate
California Almond Subjective Estimate: 3.2 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 2,410 lbs. (3% below last year’s record yield)
Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2018 or earlier): 1,330,000 (+80,000 acres)
Crop Increase of 3.2% over 2020 Crop
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops:
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3100 | 3000 | 100 | 3.3% | 3000 | 100 | 3.3% |
| 2021 | 3200 | ||||||
| * 2020 not final yet | |||||||
The Subjective estimate has been very accurate for 4 years in a row. It has been within 3.5% for 6 of the last 10 years.
Industry Expectations (prior to today) were for a crop in the 2.8 to 3.0 billion lb. range. This is definitely above expectations and will likely limit short-term upside movement in pricing following yesterday’s bullish position report. It is unclear how widely this figure will be believed and how much weight will be put on the objective estimate. The drought is not mentioned in the report. The acreage figure used in the subjective estimate is likely on the high end due to many removals taking place late due to either the worsened drought or tree removal companies not being able to get to the blocks in time. If the crop is in fact 3.2 billion lbs., then it likely means prices could remain range bound for longer than anticipated.
Posted here is the NASS Subjective 2021
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.