NASS 2022 Subjective Estimate
California Almond Subjective Estimate: 2.8 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 2,040 lbs. (8% below last year’s yield)
Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2019 or earlier): 1,370,000 (+50,000 acres)
Crop Decrease of 3.8% from the 2021 Crop
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops (in millions of lbs.):
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3101 | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% |
| 2021 * | 2900 | 3200 | -300 | -9.4% | 2800 | 100 | 3.6% |
| 2022 | 2800 | ||||||
| *2021 Crop Final is not finalized yet | |||||||
The Subjective estimate was accurate in recent years until a big miss last year with the 2021 subjective being high by about 300 million lbs.
Industry Expectations (prior to today) were similar to this figure. It is interesting to note that this estimate is based off about 30,000 acres more than the Land IQ satellite acreage estimate.
Posted here is the Nass Subjective Report 2022
NASS Almond Acreage Report for 2022
Almond Acreage Land IQ Initial Estimate 2022
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.