NASS 2023 Subjective Estimate
California Almond Subjective Estimate: 2.50 Billion Lbs.
Per Acre: 1,810 lbs. (4.7% below last year’s yield)
Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2020 or earlier): 1,380,000 (+30,000 acres)
Crop Decrease of 2.7% from the 2022 Crop
Historical Chart of estimates and actual crops (in millions of lbs.):
| Crop Year | Final Crop | Subjective | Final vs. Subjective | Objective | Final vs. Objective | ||
| 2003 | 1154 | 920 | 234 | 25.4% | 1000 | 154 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 998 | 1100 | -102 | -9.3% | 1080 | -82 | -7.6% |
| 2005 | 912 | 850 | 62 | 7.3% | 880 | 32 | 3.6% |
| 2006 | 1117 | 1020 | 97 | 9.5% | 1050 | 67 | 6.4% |
| 2007 | 1383 | 1310 | 73 | 5.6% | 1330 | 53 | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 1615 | 1460 | 155 | 10.6% | 1500 | 115 | 7.7% |
| 2009 | 1406 | 1450 | -44 | -3.0% | 1350 | 56 | 4.1% |
| 2010 | 1628 | 1530 | 98 | 6.4% | 1650 | -22 | -1.3% |
| 2011 | 2020 | 1750 | 270 | 15.4% | 1950 | 70 | 3.6% |
| 2012 | 1884 | 2000 | -116 | -5.8% | 2100 | -216 | -10.3% |
| 2013 | 2010 | 2000 | 10 | 0.5% | 1850 | 160 | 8.6% |
| 2014 | 1863 | 1950 | -87 | -4.5% | 2100 | -237 | -11.3% |
| 2015 | 1868 | 1850 | 18 | 1.0% | 1800 | 68 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 2131 | 2000 | 131 | 6.6% | 2050 | 81 | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 2260 | 2200 | 60 | 2.7% | 2250 | 10 | 0.4% |
| 2018 | 2268 | 2300 | -32 | -1.4% | 2450 | -182 | -7.4% |
| 2019 | 2536 | 2500 | 36 | 1.4% | 2200 | 336 | 15.3% |
| 2020 | 3101 | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% | 3000 | 101 | 3.4% |
| 2021 | 2922 | 3200 | -278 | -8.7% | 2800 | 122 | 4.6% |
| 2022* | 2570 | 2800 | -230 | -8.2% | 2600 | 30 | -1.1% |
| 2023 | 2500 | ||||||
*2022 Crop Final is not finalized yet
The Subjective estimate has been inaccurate for the past two crops, over-estimating by approximately 280 and 230 million lbs. per year. The objective has been extremely accurate for 3 years straight. Today’s report seems to put increasing importance on the objective estimate.
Industry Expectations (prior to today) were for a crop more in the range of 2.25 to 2.4 Billion lbs. Still, the estimated yield, if correct, would be the lowest yield since 2005.
Posted here is the Nass Subjective Almond Estimate for 2023
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.
Best regards,