Carmel ______ Declining
Carmel production has been on the decline for a long time. Growers shifted pollinator plantings to very similar looking varieties, particularly Monterey, Aldrich, and Wood Colony.
Carmel has become unpopular with most growers due to the higher occurrence of noninfectious bud failure, also known as “Crazy top”. This is where portions of the tree lose their leaves. See below photos comparing and contrasting a Carmel with bud failure vs. a healthy Monterey tree:
Noninfectious bud failure or “crazy top” in more detail as in Almond Board / UC Davis Project ID 18.19: “has been known to occur in almond trees for several decades. It manifests as a death of vegetative buds and can be identified through a more open canopy, 4 to 7 day delay in bloom, and a general reduction in productivity. NBF is a genetic disorder, as evidenced by its inability to spread though grafting, and is likely associated with DNA methylation and age of the tree/cultivar2. The underlying issue is still unknown. It is likely that the gene(s) involved in the development of dormant buds into shoots might be differentially regulated or simply fail to express because of silencing. It is also possible that epigenetic changes trigger expression of a transactivator that may cause premature programmed cell death. The occurrence of BF appears to be linked to repeated or extended exposure to high temperatures. An older tree would thus be more likely to show symptoms. Total exposure amount may also transfer through clonal propagation. In California, cultivars ‘Nonpareil’ and ‘Carmel’ are more likely to exhibit BF the issue than other commercial cultivars. Currently, selecting from a “high quality” mother block will not solve the issue as nurseries cannot identify trees prone to BF.”
Below comparison shows Carmel vs. other Carmel Type varieties (in no particular order)
The look and quality will vary from lot to lot, and crop year to crop year. The above is intended to just give a rough idea of the similarity in look for Carmel and some Carmel types.
Given the very similar characteristics of Carmel type varieties and bud failure issues prevalent with true Carmel, we expect production for true Carmel to continue to decline. Actual true Carmel only represented about 78 million lbs. in the 2023 crop year. If you divide that over 9 major sizes (from 18/20 to 36/40), deduct an estimated 10% going to electronic rejects, it represents an average of less than 8 million lbs. per size (in the entire state). This late in the season, with about 75% of the crop sold, availability could be less than 2 million lbs. per size. Divided among the many handlers in the state, there should not be much true Carmel prevalent for particular sizes. Yet we continue to see demand for straight counts of pure Carmel, even this late in the crop year.
Given the actual rarity of true Carmel yet the prevalence of Carmel sales, it seems there could be sales of Carmel getting filled with Carmel type. This can cause confusion in the marketplace. This article is intended to provide more information and transparency to help educate buyers.
Below are photos of additional example lots of Carmel type:
